673
ACUS03 KWNS 281929
SWODY3
SPC AC 281928
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
VALID 301200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY...MIDWEST...AND MID-ATLANTIC...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS
OF THE OHIO VALLEY, MIDWEST AND THE MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
AN AMPLIFYING MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING JET STREAK WILL
ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME, A RELATED COLD FRONT WILL OVERSPREAD THE OH VALLEY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
..OHIO VALLEY AND MIDWEST
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
EASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT IN THE OH VALLEY, AIDED BY LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT PRECEDING THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH. WHILE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL BE MODEST OVER THE WARM SECTOR, DIURNAL HEATING OF A MOIST AIR
MASS (LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS) WILL STILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE-STRONG
SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY (HIGHEST OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY). AROUND 30
KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND THE DESTABILIZING AIR MASS WILL FAVOR
ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
FARTHER WEST, LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IN THE LEFT-EXIT REGION OF THE
MIDLEVEL JET WILL PROMOTE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE BENEATH STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND ELONGATED/STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS (30-40 KT OF
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR), WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL IN THE STRONGER
CELLS.
..MID-ATLANTIC
DESPITE WEAK DEEP-LAYER FLOW/SHEAR, A FEW WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS DURING THE AFTERNOON, WHERE STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL DEVELOP AMID DEEP/RICH TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE (PW AROUND 2 INCHES).
..WEINMAN.. 06/28/2025
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