750
ACUS11 KWNS 282040
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282040
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-282215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1494
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0340 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EASTERN OHIO INTO
SOUTHERN...CENTRAL...AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN
MARYLAND...SOUTHERN NEW YORK...FAR WESTERN NEW JERSEY
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 471...
VALID 282040Z - 282215Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 471
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS MAY STILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER
CELLS OR LINE SEGMENTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
DISCUSSION...MULTICELL CLUSTERS HAVE AGGREGATED INTO A LINEAR
COMPLEX ACROSS EASTERN OH INTO PA, WHILE AN MCS CONTINUES TO DECAY
WHILE TRACKING EASTWARD INTO EASTERN PA. THE WARM SECTOR PRECEDING
THESE STORMS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. HOWEVER, GIVEN RESIDUAL
STATIC STABILITY, IT SEEMS THAT AN APPRECIABLE UPTICK IN INTENSITY
WITH ANY ONGOING STORMS IS LESS LIKELY, AND THAT STORMS MAY HAVE
PEAKED IN INTENSITY OVER MOST LOCALES. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PA, WHERE A LOCAL INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY
WAS NOTED WITH CELLS ENCOUNTERING SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 F.
NONETHELESS, WHILE A FEW MORE STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A
DOWNSTREAM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE MAY NOT BE NEEDED
UNLESS AN APPRECIABLE UPWARD TREND IN STORM INTENSITY IS SOMEHOW
REALIZED.
..SQUITIERI.. 06/28/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...
LAT...LON 39968153 40417983 40997694 41327644 41817618 42367578
42467560 42327533 41817487 41097482 40327512 39727593
39487665 39467988 39488004 39508069 39638146 39968153
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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