321
ACUS11 KWNS 290113
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290113
MNZ000-NDZ000-290245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1500
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0813 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND WESTERN
MINNESOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 472...
VALID 290113Z - 290245Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 472
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK FOR HAIL AND
DAMAGING GUSTS. A BRIEF TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF WW472, SEVERAL SUPERCELLS HAVE ORGANIZED. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD
OF THESE STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ND AND WESTERN MN REMAINS VERY
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG SUPERCELLS WITH 4000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND 40 KT
OF BULK SHEAR. WITH THE SUPERCELL MODE AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES PRESENT, LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT WITH
THESE STORMS. HOWEVER, THESE STORMS ARE APPROACHING THE NORTHWESTERN
FRINGES OF A WARM FRONTAL ZONE WITH STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. THIS
COULD SUPPORT A BRIEF TORNADO RISK INTO THIS EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY, STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO GROW UPSCALE AND INTERACT WITH
ADDITIONAL STORMS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS MN. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY
RECENT CAM GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS EVENTUAL MCS DEVELOPMENT. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT A GREATER RISK FOR DAMAGING GUSTS LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH.
..LYONS.. 06/29/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...
LAT...LON 46049571 45969721 46379748 46849731 47319559 47259468
46699463 46389476 46119511 46089548 46049571
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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