557
ACUS02 KWNS 290544
SWODY2
SPC AC 290542
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1242 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
VALID 301200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDWEST
TO THE MID-ATLANTIC...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS
OF THE OHIO VALLEY, MIDWEST AND THE MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY WITH A PERSISTENT RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND A CLOSED
LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.
..MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S.
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE THAT STEEP, BUT INSTABILITY AND
FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME STRONG UPDRAFTS. 30 TO
40 KNOTS OF MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WILL LEAD TO
MODEST SHEAR WHICH COULD RESULT IN MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. 00Z CAM GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT WITH SOME POST-FRONTAL STORMS
ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS WISCONSIN BENEATH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT. THIS
COOLER AIR ALOFT MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL FROM THE
POST-FRONTAL STORMS.
..MID ATLANTIC
DESPITE WEAK DEEP-LAYER FLOW/SHEAR, A FEW WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS DURING THE AFTERNOON, WHERE STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL DEVELOP AMID DEEP/RICH TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE (PW AROUND 2 INCHES).
..BENTLEY.. 06/29/2025
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