902
ACUS03 KWNS 290723
SWODY3
SPC AC 290722
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
CAROLINAS INTO THE NORTHEAST...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE
CAROLINAS TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
..SYNOPSIS
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. MODERATE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH
OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND ARC BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY.
..CAROLINAS TO THE NORTHEAST
LOW TO MID 70S DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY. DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION SHOULD
RESULT IN WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE
NORTHEAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA. STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE
HIGHER IN THIS AREA, BUT WITH LIMITED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, STORMS WILL
LIKELY BE LESS ORGANIZED.
FARTHER NORTH, STRONGER SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FROM PENNSYLVANIA
NORTHWARD. THIS MAY RESULT IN GREATER STORMS ORGANIZATION INCLUDING
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK (<6 C/KM)
WHICH WILL BE THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR TO GREATER SEVERE WEATHER
PROBABILITIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST.
..BENTLEY.. 06/29/2025
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