220
ACUS11 KWNS 290947
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290947
IAZ000-291215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1505
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0447 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL IOWA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 290947Z - 291215Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS
OF NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING. DUE TO THE
MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT, THE CHANCE OF AN ADDITIONAL WEATHER
WATCH APPEARS LOW.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY FROM SIOUX FALLS, SOUTH DAKOTA
SHOWS A BOWING LINE SEGMENT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST IOWA, WHICH IS
LOCATED ALONG A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST GRADIENT OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY. NEAR THIS AREA OVER NORTHWEST IOWA, THE RAP SUGGESTS
THAT 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES ARE 8 TO 8.5 C/KM. THIS WILL LIKELY HELP
MAINTAIN AN ISOLATED WIND-DAMAGE THREAT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS OVER NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL IOWA. ALSO, FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE
A SHARP TEMPERATURE INVERSION IN THE LOW-LEVELS FROM THE SURFACE TO
ABOUT 900 MB. THIS FACTOR, ALONG WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY, SHOULD
MAKE ANY SEVERE THREAT INCREASINGLY MARGINAL WITH TIME.
..BROYLES/SMITH.. 06/29/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...
LAT...LON 43129560 42269598 41899598 41639562 41479500 41549368
42289323 42899347 43249438 43129560
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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