771
ACUS11 KWNS 291625
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291624
MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-291830-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1506
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN KS AND WESTERN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 291624Z - 291830Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY DEVELOP
INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN EXPANDING CLUSTER OF
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST MOVING STORMS ALONG THE KANSAS-MISSOURI BORDER.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...AN INITIALLY SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS
EAST-CENTRAL KS HAS RECENTLY PRODUCED MEASURED GUSTS OF 47 KTS AT
TOP AND 42 KTS AT FOE. WHILE DEEP-LAYER WINDS/SHEAR IS MARGINAL,
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THERMODYNAMICALLY DRIVEN COLD POOL
PROPAGATION ALONG A GRADIENT OF DIFFERENTIAL BOUNDARY-LAYER
HEATING/MLCAPE. 12Z NSSL-MPAS RUNS APPEAR TO HAVE WELL-HANDLED THIS
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT AND SUGGEST AN EXPANDING CLUSTER MAY INTENSIFY
TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE DEPICTED THIS SCENARIO
TO AN EXTENT, ALBEIT DELAYED AND MAINTAINING MORE COMPACT CLUSTERING
INTO LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE WEAK BACKGROUND SHEAR/FORCING FOR
ASCENT, CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE ON WHETHER A SUFFICIENT SEVERE
WIND THREAT WILL BECOME APPARENT FOR DOWNSTREAM WATCH ISSUANCE.
..GRAMS/HART.. 06/29/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 39089504 38849425 38199341 37649310 37149310 36689314
36559395 36859484 37249575 37489665 37939684 38359657
39089504
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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