071
ACUS11 KWNS 291708
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291707
NJZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-SCZ000-291930-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1507
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1207 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 291707Z - 291930Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR SPORADIC TREE DAMAGE DUE TO THUNDERSTORM
DOWNBURSTS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. A
WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN A
CONTINUED WARM, MOIST, AND UNCAPPED AIRMASS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL REMAIN RATHER ANEMIC LEADING TO SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS WHOSE MOTION WILL BE DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY COLD-POOL
INTERACTIONS AND TERRAIN FEATURES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS
THE AREA RANGE FROM ABOUT 1.5 INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
APPALACHIANS TO ABOUT 2 INCHES IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AREA. THE
COMBINATION OF SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND HIGH-PRECIPITABLE WATER MAY
YIELD ISOLATED, WATER-LOADED DOWNBURSTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SPORADIC TREE DAMAGE. GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT, A
WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
..MARSH.. 06/29/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...
LAT...LON 39557716 39777461 39357385 37917491 36937609 35937879
35018295 35338406 38547936 39557716
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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