857
ACUS11 KWNS 291853
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291852
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-292045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1510
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0152 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST CO...NORTHWEST KS...FAR SOUTHWEST NE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY
VALID 291852Z - 292045Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...INITIALLY ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREATS ARE
ANTICIPATED ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR IN COLORADO. A SLOW-MOVING QLCS,
WITH AN INCREASING WIND THREAT, SHOULD EVOLVE EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION...PERSISTENT SURFACE NORTHEASTERLIES ARE AIDING IN THE
ADVECTION OF 50S DEW POINTS WESTWARD TOWARDS THE FOOTHILLS NORTH OF
THE PALMER DIVIDE. THIS WILL AID IN INCREASING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR INTO
THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES
ARE WEAK TO MODEST, BUT SUFFICIENT FOR TRANSIENT MID-LEVEL ROTATION
AMID SUBSTANTIAL VEERING OF THE WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT. THIS TYPE
OF FLOW REGIME SHOULD SUPPORT OUTFLOW-DOMINATED CONVECTION.
COLLIDING OUTFLOWS AND AMALGAMATING CELLS WILL LIKELY YIELD A
SLOW-MOVING MCS AS THEY SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE KS BORDER. AS THIS
OCCURS, A MIX OF SEVERE WIND/HAIL MAY TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY A
SEVERE GUST THREAT.
..GRAMS/HART.. 06/29/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...
LAT...LON 40940232 40590165 40080130 39400123 38550211 38400278
38670412 39030472 39760493 40440509 40930510 40940326
40940232
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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