832
ACUS03 KWNS 291927
SWODY3
SPC AC 291926
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM MAY ALSO OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS.
..SYNOPSIS
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS UPPER-RIDGING
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS, AND AN UPPER LOW MEANDERS
ALONG THE WEST COAST ON TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS WHILE A SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE OVERSPREADS MUCH OF THE U.S. BETWEEN THE ROCKIES AND
APPALACHIANS. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT, AMPLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY, COINCIDING WITH MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, WILL SUPPORT
SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS, A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE.
..NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ADVANCES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
APPALACHIANS, SURFACE HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
RISING INTO THE 80S TO 90 F AMID LOW TO MID 70S F DEWPOINTS,
RESULTING IN MODERATE BUOYANCY. THE RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE,
OVERSPREAD BY MEDIOCRE LAPSE RATES, WILL SUPPORT 2500+ J/KG MLCAPE,
CONSTRAINED TO TALL/THIN PROFILES. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH,
ENOUGH STRENGTHENING WITH HEIGHT OF THE 850-500 MB WIND FIELDS WILL
ENCOURAGE 25-40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND THE SUBSEQUENT
DEVELOPMENT OF MULTICELLS AND SHORT LINE SEGMENTS. AT LEAST ISOLATED
DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, A
CATEGORY 2/SLIGHT RISK WAS ADDED ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC,
WHERE THE LATEST GUIDANCE DEPICTS RELATIVELY ROBUST CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT, AND WHERE FORECAST BUOYANCY IS STRONGEST. HERE, WIND
DAMAGE MAY OCCUR ON A MORE FREQUENT BASIS.
..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WEAK UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE WILL ENCOURAGE THE NORTHWESTWARD ADVECTION OF UPPER 50S
TO 60 F SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND IMMEDIATE
ADJACENT AREAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE DEWPOINTS WILL BE
OVERSPREAD BY 7.5-8.5 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, RESULTING IN AT
LEAST 1500 J/KG MLCAPE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS THEY PROGRESS EASTWARD.
MULTICELLULAR OR PERHAPS TRANSIENT SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODES ARE
POSSIBLE GIVEN LACKLUSTER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. NONETHELESS, A STRAY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE, ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY A SEVERE
WIND/HAIL THREAT.
..SQUITIERI.. 06/29/2025
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