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ACUS11 KWNS 292001
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292000
OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-292130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1511
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST CO AND NORTHEAST NM
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 292000Z - 292130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS AND SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO
INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. AFTER COORDINATION WITH WFO PUB, WATCH
ISSUANCE IN THE NEAR-TERM IS UNLIKELY, BUT MAY INCREASE LATER
TOWARDS THE KANSAS BORDER.
DISCUSSION...SEVERAL CELLS HAVE FORMED FROM THE PIKES PEAK REGION
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. MUCH OF THIS REGION
LIES ON THE FRINGE OF MEAGER BUOYANCY WITH A DEEP, WELL-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. PUB VWP DATA SAMPLED
SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLIES RELATIVE TO MID-LEVEL
WESTERLIES, INDICATIVE OF THE MODEST DEEP-LAYER FLOW AND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. NEVERTHELESS, THE LARGE SURFACE TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT
SPREADS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR MICROBURSTS CAPABLE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE GUSTS. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DISORGANIZED OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS SIGNAL THAT SOME UPTICK MAY OCCUR INTO
EARLY EVENING AS OUTFLOWS IMPINGE ON INCREASINGLY GREATER BUOYANCY
TOWARDS THE KS BORDER.
..GRAMS/HART.. 06/29/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
LAT...LON 38630494 38980467 38720418 38430412 38370334 38380309
38260286 37650284 36940287 36600286 36210318 35730460
35810497 37100483 38260499 38630494
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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