772
ACUS03 KWNS 300729
SWODY3
SPC AC 300728
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
WIDESPREAD SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
THE CONUS ON WEDNESDAY. ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY, BUT
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
THE CAROLINAS.
..DISCUSSION
WIDESPREAD MONSOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS A LARGE PORTION
OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT
WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
AND INTO THE CAROLINAS. SHEAR WILL BE VERY WEAK ACROSS THIS ENTIRE
ZONE WITH VERY POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER, MOISTURE WILL BE
VERY HIGH WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.75" TO 2" ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
THEREFORE, ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A THREAT FOR
WET MICROBURSTS. HOWEVER, A LACK OF A MORE FOCUSED ZONE OF THREAT
WITHIN A BROAD, LOW PROBABILITY RISK AREA, PRECLUDES SEVERE WEATHER
PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
DURING THE PERIOD WHICH SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOSTLY
LIMITED. AS THE NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER, THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SUB-SEVERE
GIVEN RELATIVELY LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE PRESENT WEST OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS MONTANA AND TO ITS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER, LIMITED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY WEAK INSTABILITY IN
BOTH AREAS. THEREFORE, STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE.
..BENTLEY.. 06/30/2025
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