123
ACUS11 KWNS 300952
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300952
KSZ000-301215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1521
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0452 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 300952Z - 301215Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY CONTINUE
IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST HI-RESOLUTION RADAR IMAGERY FROM TOPEKA
SHOWS A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS,
WHICH IS LOCATED ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A POCKET OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY. AHEAD OF THE LINE, THE RAP IS ESTIMATING MLCAPE IN THE
1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE, WITH ABOUT 30 KNOTS OF FLOW AT 850 MB. IN
ADDITION, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE LOCATED FROM THE DAKOTAS
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR CONTINUED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE LINE RECENTLY
PRODUCED A 59 MPH WIND GUST AT RUSSELL, KANSAS. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
WIND-DAMAGE THREAT MAY CONTINUE WITH THE MORE INTENSE PARTS OF THE
LINE, IT IS UNCERTAIN THE EXTENT OF ANY SEVERE RISK GOING FORWARD
INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS.
..BROYLES/SMITH.. 06/30/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...
LAT...LON 39729679 39579637 39339593 39039571 38699572 38249601
37929671 37869775 38059870 38539883 39149841 39449791
39729729 39729679
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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