515
ACUS11 KWNS 301907
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301906
ILZ000-MOZ000-302100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1525
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0206 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN MO AND CENTRAL IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 301906Z - 302100Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT AND SAGGING SOUTHEAST INTO
EARLY EVENING.
DISCUSSION...GRADUAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN UNDERWAY ALONG
THE TRAILING PORTION OF A WEAK SOUTHWEST/NORTHEAST-ORIENTED COLD
FRONT, AHEAD OF A MINOR MCV OVER THE NORTHERN KC METRO AREA.
SOMEWHAT GREATER BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING HAS OCCURRED AHEAD OF THE IL
PORTION OF THE FRONT, WHICH MAY AID IN STRONG GUST POTENTIAL LATER
AS STORM COVERAGE INCREASES ALONG THE FRONT. LOW TO MID-LEVEL WIND
PROFILES ARE DECIDEDLY WEAK AND WESTERLY AHEAD OF THE MCV PER AREA
VWPS. AS SUCH, ORGANIZATIONAL POTENTIAL APPEARS RATHER LIMITED.
PULSE-TYPE WET MICROBURSTS AND LOOSE CLUSTERING SHOULD POSE A RISK
OF LOCALIZED STRONG GUSTS.
..GRAMS/HART.. 06/30/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...
LAT...LON 39149417 39569440 39769370 40029241 40279137 40649023
40748989 41158812 41118779 40788779 39938852 39308983
39189167 39209243 39149417
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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