951
ACUS11 KWNS 302004
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302003
NMZ000-302200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1526
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0303 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 302003Z - 302200Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
DISCUSSION...REGIONAL SATELLITE/RADAR SHOWS A FEW AREAS OF ROBUST,
TERRAIN-DRIVEN CONVECTION, MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF NEW MEXICO WITH SOME MERGING OF CONVECTION BEGINNING TO OCCUR.
THESE STORMS INITIATED AMID STRONG MORNING INSOLATION AND SUFFICIENT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FOR DESTABILIZATION, CHARACTERIZED BY DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S F. THESE
CONDITIONS HAVE LED TO MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG AND STRONG
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, EXCEEDING 8-9 C IN MOST AREAS. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MERGING AND GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN
AND DRIFT SOUTH WITH TIME. ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
..KARSTENS/HART.. 06/30/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...
LAT...LON 33160872 33580892 34060861 34920790 35670636 35630556
34570533 33000560 32580595 32390702 32730821 33160872
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page