580
ACUS11 KWNS 302101
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302101
OKZ000-TXZ000-302230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1527
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0401 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO
NORTHWEST TEXAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 302101Z - 302230Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS, WITH A
RISK FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL. WATCH
ISSUANCE NOT ANTICIPATED BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS A ZONE OF RAPIDLY DEVELOPING
CONVECTION ALONG A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS NOW DEEPENING
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS. RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE (70S+ TDS)
AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 90S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO A VERY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY, CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE
VALUES EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG. THE EXPECTATION IS FOR SCATTERED STORMS
TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS CORRIDOR IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS, POSING A RISK
FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SEVERE HAIL. AT THIS
TIME, WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED THOUGH CONVECTIVE TRENDS
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED SHOULD A WATCH BE NEEDED.
..KARSTENS/HART.. 06/30/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...
LAT...LON 35009602 34469706 33869797 33009923 32890003 33490052
34599918 35419803 35819668 35659595 35009602
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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