126
ACUS03 KWNS 010729
SWODY3
SPC AC 010728
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT TUE JUL 01 2025
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. ISOLATED SEVERE WIND
GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
..SYNOPSIS
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A
STRONG AND AMPLIFYING TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TO THE WEST OF
THE RIDGE AXIS, MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST FROM THE
NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION,
A LEE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. A WARM FRONT
WILL EXTEND EAST FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND A DRYLINE/SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING TO ITS SOUTH.
..NORTHEAST
MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. COOLING MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES, ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH, WILL
STEEPEN LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE DAY. IN ADDITION, A MODERATELY
STRONG MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR WITH 40
TO 50 KNOTS OF MID-LEVEL FLOW. A MORE CONCENTRATED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT MAY OCCUR BENEATH THIS MID-LEVEL JET STREAK IF MODERATE
INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP WHERE SHEAR WOULD BE MAXIMIZED.
..NORTHERN PLAINS
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND
HEIGHT FALLS IN AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT SOME STRONG
STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS FAR EASTERN MONTANA INTO
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR TO A GREATER SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL BE SHEAR WITH ONLY 20 TO 25 KNOTS FORECAST.
HOWEVER, THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE
OF ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
..BENTLEY.. 07/01/2025
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