915
ACUS11 KWNS 011714
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011714
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-011845-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1532
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1214 PM CDT TUE JUL 01 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND FAR EASTERN
LOUISIANA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 011714Z - 011845Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
DISCUSSION...STRONG MORNING INSOLATION HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S AMID A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER,
CHARACTERIZED BY DEW POINT TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 70S F. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN DESTABILIZATION OF THE ENVIRONMENT, YIELDING 2500 J/KG
OF MLCAPE. VISIBLE SATELLITE/RADAR IS NOW INDICATING SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. THE EXPECTATION IS FOR
STORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING, MATURING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WHILE SPREADING SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION, BUT GIVEN APPRECIABLE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES (APPROACHING 8 C/KM) AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MOIST ENVIRONMENT,
PERIODIC STRONG/WATER-LOADED DOWNDRAFTS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY, RESULTING IN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
..KARSTENS/MOSIER.. 07/01/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...
LAT...LON 30769023 31609087 32699075 33569008 33968949 34378826
34618725 34278614 33428547 32118571 31698602 31188685
30448889 30769023
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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