855
ACUS11 KWNS 012032
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012031
WYZ000-MTZ000-IDZ000-012200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1534
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0331 PM CDT TUE JUL 01 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN IDAHO INTO SOUTHWEST
MONTANA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 012031Z - 012200Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE/RADAR SHOWS A FEW AREAS OF CONVECTION
THAT HAVE DEVELOPED DURING PEAK HEATING, MOSTLY CONFINED TO HIGH
TERRAIN AREAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING IN A RELATIVELY DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S F.
YET, STRONG HEATING HAS YIELDED STRONG LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
EXCEEDING 9 C/KM IN MOST AREAS, AND INVERTED-V PROFILES. THUS,
STRONG DOWNDRAFT WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS
THE ACTIVITY GRADUALLY MOVES OFF HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. HOWEVER, GIVEN
THE EXPECTATION FOR SOMEWHAT SPARSE COVERAGE OF STORMS, WATCH
ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.
..KARSTENS/MOSIER.. 07/01/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...
LAT...LON 45311353 45821314 46331196 46381151 45971105 44811087
42851118 42401218 42441297 42801357 44101361 45311353
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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