173
ACUS02 KWNS 020601
SWODY2
SPC AC 020559
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT WED JUL 02 2025
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THE SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND THE
NORTHEAST...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. ISOLATED SEVERE WIND
GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES.
..SYNOPSIS
A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS ON THURSDAY. TO THE EAST, A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WITH A STRONG MID-LEVEL JET
STREAK MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. FARTHER WEST, SEVERAL MID-LEVEL
TROUGHS WILL TRAVERSE THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED.
..NORTHEAST
WEAK TO POTENTIALLY MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING
COLD FRONT. SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE FRONT AS FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY MULTICELLULAR DUE TO MODEST SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, IF SOME GREATER INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP
BENEATH THE COMPACT BUT STRONG 50 KNOT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK, A FEW
SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THE STORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.
..SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES
A RESERVOIR OF LOW TO MID 70S DEWPOINTS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS IOWA, EASTERN MINNESOTA, AND WISCONSIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONG HEATING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
REGION. FORCING FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, MODERATE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. THEREFORE, A
CONDITIONALLY GREATER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS POSSIBLE, BUT
QUESTIONS REGARDING STORM COVERAGE PRECLUDE HIGHER PROBABILITIES AT
THIS TIME.
..NORTHERN PLAINS
STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON THURSDAY AS UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S DEWPOINTS ADVECT INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK BUT STEEP LOW AND MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
..BENTLEY.. 07/02/2025
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