715
ACUS03 KWNS 020729
SWODY3
SPC AC 020728
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT WED JUL 02 2025
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY.
..DISCUSSION
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. AS THIS TROUGH ADVANCES
EAST, SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED
WITHIN A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. SHEAR ACROSS THE
WARM SECTOR REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AS THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS UNCLEAR. IF
MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS 30 KNOTS OR LESS, STORM ORGANIZATION MAY BE
SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS WITH A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
HOWEVER, IF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW CAN OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING, A MORE CONCENTRATED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IS POSSIBLE. DUE TO THESE UNCERTAINTIES, A MARGINAL RISK IS
SUFFICIENT AT THIS TIME, BUT HIGHER SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES MAY
BE NEEDED IF MORE FAVORABLE WARM-SECTOR SHEAR APPEARS LIKELY.
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES ON FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED
AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS NORTHEAST. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUBSTANTIATE A MARGINAL RISK, BUT
IF GREATER INSTABILITY MATERIALIZES, A MARGINAL RISK MAY EVENTUALLY
BE NEEDED.
..BENTLEY.. 07/02/2025
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