905
ACUS03 KWNS 021857
SWODY3
SPC AC 021856
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 PM CDT WED JUL 02 2025
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY OVER
PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY.
..DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST
THE BAND OF PRIMARY WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE NORTHERN
TIER OF STATES ON FRIDAY, WITH A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN SK/MT AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.
RELATIVELY WARM/MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL. THERE REMAIN
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE VARIOUS 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING TIMING
AND INTENSITY OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS LENDS SUFFICIENT
UNCERTAINTY TO THE CORRIDOR OF GREATEST CONCERN TO MAINTAIN ONLY
MRGL RISK AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, PARTS OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY NEED
UPGRADED IN LATER OUTLOOKS AS DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.
..ID/MT
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK INTO THE WESTERN STATES ON
FRIDAY, PROMOTING SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. THERE IS
SOME CONCERN FOR A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
OVER THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING, BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN TO
DIVERSE TO ADD A RISK AREA AT THIS TIME.
..HART.. 07/02/2025
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