526
ACUS11 KWNS 030047
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030047
MTZ000-030215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1544
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 PM CDT WED JUL 02 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MONTANA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 030047Z - 030215Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE AREA IS STILL BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASE IN
SEVERE-GUST/OUTFLOW POTENTIAL. THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN.
DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH
TRANSIENT/EMBEDDED DEEPER CORES IS EVOLVING NORTHEAST OF LEWISTOWN
MT, WHERE A 36 KT GUST WAS RECENTLY MEASURED. AS THIS ACTIVITY (AND
ADDITIONAL STORMS FARTHER EAST ALONG A NORTH/SOUTH-ORIENTED WIND
SHIFT) CONTINUE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
MAY PROMOTE SPORADIC SEVERE OUTFLOW WINDS. HOWEVER, THE COMBINATION
OF MODEST BUOYANCY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CONVECTION NORTHEAST OF LEWISTOWN CASTS UNCERTAINTY ON THE POTENTIAL
FOR AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER TO EVOLVE. AN ELONGATED MID/UPPER-LEVEL
HODOGRAPH SAMPLED BY THE GGW VWP MAY FAVOR SOME CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION WITH THE STORMS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF GLASGOW MT, THOUGH
LIMITED RESIDENCE TIME IN THE WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALSO LIMITS
CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE COVERAGE/POTENTIAL. OVERALL, IT IS STILL
UNCLEAR IF THE SCENARIO WILL WARRANT A WATCH, THOUGH TRENDS ARE
BEING MONITORED.
..WEINMAN/GUYER.. 07/03/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...
LAT...LON 47100634 46840747 46900891 47240951 47670971 48130960
48700923 49080852 49080535 48580510 47620559 47100634
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
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