997
ACUS11 KWNS 030452
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030452
IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-030645-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1545
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 PM CDT WED JUL 02 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST SD...NORTHEAST NE...NORTHWEST IA...AND
FAR SOUTHWEST MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 030452Z - 030645Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED INSTANCES OF SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION...IN RESPONSE TO WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION, ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A
LARGE-SCALE RIDGE. HERE, 30-40 KT OF MIDLEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS
YIELDING AN ELONGATED/MOSTLY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPH (AROUND 30 KT OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR). THIS WIND PROFILE, COUPLED WITH AN INFLUX OF STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ATOP A SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL STABLE LAYER, MAY
SUPPORT A COUPLE ELEVATED/TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES -- CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL. GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING FOR
ASCENT, STORM LONGEVITY AND OVERALL EVOLUTION IS UNCERTAIN.
..WEINMAN/GUYER.. 07/03/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...LBF...
LAT...LON 42229747 43049896 43489895 44059853 44239784 44049706
43639595 43099519 42469511 42069558 41969661 42229747
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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