063
ACUS02 KWNS 030601
SWODY2
SPC AC 030600
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT THU JUL 03 2025
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
A STRONG UPPER-TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST CONUS INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, A RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AN ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST.
..CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, A SURFACE
LOW WILL DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THIS
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT, STRONG INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
80S. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THIS
FRONTAL ZONE AS ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE FRONT WITH AN UNCAPPED WARM
SECTOR. SOME EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE JET STREAKS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. WITHIN THESE ZONES OF
STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW, SHEAR MAY BE MORE FAVORABLE AND SUPPORT A
GREATER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. HOWEVER, THE LOCATIONS OF THESE
MESOSCALE REGIONS WITH A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT REMAIN UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME.
..ID/MT
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK INTO THE WESTERN STATES ON
FRIDAY, PROMOTING SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. THERE IS
SOME CONCERN FOR A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
OVER THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING, BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN TO
DIVERSE TO ADD A RISK AREA AT THIS TIME.
..BENTLEY.. 07/03/2025
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