488
ACUS11 KWNS 031617
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031617
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-031815-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1547
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1117 AM CDT THU JUL 03 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...NEW ENGLAND
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 483...
VALID 031617Z - 031815Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 483
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...PRIMARY SEVERE POTENTIAL, FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
DAMAGING WINDS, WILL BE LARGELY FOCUSED ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN MAINE
AND FAR SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SEPARATE
AREA OF STORMS OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TO INTENSIFY DOWNSTREAM
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...A BROKEN THIN BAND OF QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTION IS
ONGOING FROM NORTHERN ME TO THE NH/MA BORDER AREA. THE RECENT
CONSOLIDATION INTO LINEAR STRUCTURES SHOULD MODULATE THE EARLIER
LARGE HAIL THREAT. BUT THIS WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND
RISK AS STORMS IMPINGE ON A WARM/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER DOWNSTREAM.
LOW TO MID 80S SURFACE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS HOLDING
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S IS YIELDING MODEST BUOYANCY WITH MLCAPE OF
500-1500 J/KG. STRONG GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS INITIAL ROUND
SPREADS OFF THE COAST/INTO NB.
FARTHER WEST, STABILIZATION IN THE WAKE OF THIS LEADING CONVECTION
WILL YIELD A LULL IN SEVERE POTENTIAL. BUT THE PRIMARY LOBE OF
ASCENT SUPPORTING CONVECTION ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INTO QC
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHERN VT/NH INTO WESTERN ME THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE AN ADEQUATE GAP OF DESTABILIZATION
BETWEEN THE TWO REGIMES FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT, ALTHOUGH THERE
IS BELOW-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER SUFFICIENT RECOVERY WILL
OCCUR FOR A SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
..GRAMS.. 07/03/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...
LAT...LON 45007271 46187063 46966808 46706719 45206680 44646705
42387090 42437174 43017147 43327174 43607241 43777324
44017400 44487354 45007271
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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