154
ACUS11 KWNS 031657
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031657
MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-031900-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1548
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1157 AM CDT THU JUL 03 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...THE NORTHEAST
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY
VALID 031657Z - 031900Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SEVERE
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS INITIALLY ISOLATED STORMS INCREASE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE IS
LIKELY.
DISCUSSION...INITIAL SUSTAINED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NY, WITH SCATTERED AGITATED CU OVER NORTHEAST PA AND
SOUTHEAST NY. A PLUME OF MODERATE BUOYANCY WILL EXPAND EASTWARD FROM
WESTERN/CENTRAL PA AND SOUTHWEST NY, AIDING IN STRENGTHENING
CONVECTIVE INTENSITY AS STORMS MATURE. A STRONG MID-LEVEL WESTERLY
JETLET ATOP ALREADY VEERED AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL YIELD
HODOGRAPH ELONGATION. COMBINED WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL ASCENT, THE SETUP
SHOULD SUPPORT GENERALLY SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS WITH TRANSIENT
MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION. AS SUCH, ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE AND THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTIVE WIND THREAT
MIGHT BE SUBDUED UNTIL LATE-AFTERNOON CLUSTERING BECOMES MORE
PROBABLE.
..GRAMS/MOSIER.. 07/03/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...
LAT...LON 42777681 42857547 43117355 42927285 42507218 42057209
41497245 40917352 40807456 41037586 41427685 42297745
42777681
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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