462
ACUS11 KWNS 031918
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031918
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-NDZ000-032145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1550
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0218 PM CDT THU JUL 03 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL MINNESOTA...FAR NORTHEAST IOWA...AND
CENTRAL/WESTERN WISCONSIN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 031918Z - 032145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE POSING A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WIND/HAIL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A REMNANT MCV TRAVERSING
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, WEAK
CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED THROUGHOUT THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT
DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ONGOING ACTIVITY, WITH MLCAPE VALUES NOW
EXCEEDING 15000-2000 J/KG. VISIBLE SATELLITE SUPPORTS THIS NOTION,
PARTICULARLY ALONG A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED WARM/MOIST AXIS
(WEAK WARM FRONT) WHERE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES ARE NEARING 65-70 F
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE AFOREMENTIONED MCV IS AIDING IN
ENHANCEMENT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, RANGING FROM 30-40 KT, ACROSS THE
REGION.
CONTINUED INSOLATION ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD SUPPORT FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION, WHICH MAY LEAD TO A RE-INTENSIFICATION OF THE
ONGOING ACTIVITY ENTERING WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA WHERE MLCIN IS
RELATIVELY LOWER. ADDITIONAL STORM FORMATION IS ALSO POSSIBLE
DOWNSTREAM (AS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR RUNS) BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF SEVERE WIND/HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE SHOULD THIS OCCUR. WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME, THOUGH CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
..KARSTENS/MOSIER.. 07/03/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FGF...
ABR...
LAT...LON 46519273 45959167 45089023 44018887 42978895 42398954
42199033 41989141 42179225 42789314 43709370 44689470
44919517 45119574 45419624 46019657 46729658 47309626
47369549 47129445 46519273
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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