228
ACUS11 KWNS 040615
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040614
MNZ000-NDZ000-040815-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1558
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0114 AM CDT FRI JUL 04 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...FAR NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 485...
VALID 040614Z - 040815Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 485
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS FROM NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO FAR NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. A WATCH
EXTENSION OF 1 TO 2 HOURS COULD BE NEEDED AS THE 07Z EXPIRATION OF
WW 485 APPROACHES.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST MOSAIC RADAR ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SHOWS A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED NEAR THE
NORTH-DAKOTA-CANADA BORDER, TO THE NORTHWEST OF GRAND FORKS.
SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THE LINE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG
THE BORDER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS, AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT FAR
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND FAR NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THIS LINE IS
LOCATED ALONG A SHARP GRADIENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY, WHICH
COMBINED WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR EVIDENT ON THE GRAND
FORKS WSR-88D VWP, SHOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED WIND-DAMAGE AND HAIL
THREAT.
FURTHER TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST, A RELATIVELY ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS
ONGOING TO THE WEST OF MINOT, NORTH DAKOTA. THIS STORM IS LOCATED
ALONG AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY, WITH THE RAP ESTIMATING
MLCAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG. THE STORM IS LIKELY BEING SUPPORTED BY
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. RAP MESOSCALE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS
A POCKET OF VERY STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER MUCH OF
NORTH DAKOTA, WHERE 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES ARE IN THE 7.5 TO 8
C/KM RANGE. THIS, COMBINED WITH MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD
SUPPORT A WIND-DAMAGE THREAT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
..BROYLES/SMITH.. 07/04/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
LAT...LON 48339642 48159753 48009871 47850037 47800147 48030186
48300182 48580166 48840119 48930041 48989817 49009725
48959660 48829631 48589624 48339642
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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