358
ACUS11 KWNS 041808
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041807
IDZ000-ORZ000-042000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1559
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 PM CDT FRI JUL 04 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST OREGON INTO SOUTHERN IDAHO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 041807Z - 042000Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON WILL
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS THEY MIGRATE INTO SOUTHERN IDAHO. STORM
COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY ISOLATED TO PRECLUDE WATCH
ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...GOES VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS STEADY VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT
OF CUMULUS AND INCREASINGLY LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OR
OVER THE PAST 30 MINUTES AS HEATING OF A SEASONALLY MOIST AIR MASS
CONTINUES UNDER AND JUST AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. ADDITIONAL
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN DESTABILIZATION SHOULD YIELD MLCAPE VALUES UPWARDS
OF 500-1000 J/KG AS THIS ACTIVITY SPREADS INTO SOUTHWESTERN ID WHERE
MID-LEVEL FLOW IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER (30-45 KNOTS). ALTHOUGH BUOYANCY
WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED, INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
PROMOTE INCREASING STORM ORGANIZATION THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS A
MIX OF THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS AND A FEW ISOLATED CELLS EMERGES (BASED
ON RECENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS). STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
COUPLED WITH 30-40 KNOT FLOW NEAR THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY
SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE GUSTS WITH ANY DEEP CONVECTION, THOUGH THIS
POTENTIAL WILL BE MAXIMIZED WITH ANY ORGANIZED CLUSTERS THAT CAN
DEVELOP. ADDITIONALLY, BUOYANCY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD BE
ADEQUATE FOR LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION (MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 1 TO 1.25
INCHES IN DIAMETER) WITH MORE DISCRETE CELLS. OVERALL, MODEST
BUOYANCY AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORM COVERAGE SHOULD
LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT AND PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR WATCH
ISSUANCE.
..MOORE/MOSIER.. 07/04/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...PIH...MSO...BOI...
LAT...LON 42091810 42391832 42751837 43231834 43571806 44761525
44771481 44581426 44251396 43801376 43221362 42831361
42501366 42171389 42031430 42091810
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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