633  
ACUS11 KWNS 051908  
SWOMCD  
SPC MCD 051907  
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-052130-  
 
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1568  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0207 PM CDT SAT JUL 05 2025  
 
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF  
WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS  
 
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY  
 
VALID 051907Z - 052130Z  
 
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT  
 
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND  
INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. AN  
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST AND  
MOST ORGANIZED STORMS, BUT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS UNLIKELY.  
 
DISCUSSION...A PREFRONTAL NORTH-NORTHEAST TO  
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST-ORIENTED BAND OF STORMS ACROSS IOWA AND WISCONSIN  
AHEAD OF A MIDLEVEL IMPULSE HAS BEGUN STRENGTHENING AND DEEPENING  
THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES AHEAD OF THESE STORMS HAS  
RESULTED IN SURFACE HEATING AND MODEST DESTABILIZATION (~1000 J/KG  
OF MLCAPE PER RECENT MESOANALYSIS). RECENT VWPS FROM ARX INDICATE  
AROUND 30 KNOTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, SUPPORTING THE POSSIBILITY OF  
AT LEAST SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. THE POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES,  
HOWEVER, WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. WITH OVER 30  
KNOTS OF FLOW AROUND 1-KM AGL AND RELATIVELY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE  
RATES, ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE  
STRONGEST STORMS.  
 
..JIRAK/HART.. 07/05/2025  
   
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT  
 
ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...  
 
LAT...LON 41329293 42059216 42759144 43499090 44608998 44998967  
45568852 45248786 44338806 43148877 42608903 41908967  
41529051 41239149 41039253 41029295 41329293  
 
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH  
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