528
ACUS11 KWNS 052014
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052014
MTZ000-052215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1569
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0314 PM CDT SAT JUL 05 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST MONTANA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 487...
VALID 052014Z - 052215Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 487
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WINDS IS INCREASING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MONTANA DOWNSTREAM OF AN ORGANIZED MCS.
DISCUSSION...OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS, A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS
GROWN UPSCALE INTO AN ORGANIZED MCS WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING
SEVERE WINDS (A 55 KNOT GUST WAS RECENTLY NOTED AT KBIL/BILLINGS,
MT). AHEAD OF THE MCS, TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE UPPER
70S AND LOW 80S WITHIN A DIFFUSE BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHEAST MT TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE BLACK HILLS REGION. WINDS
WITHIN THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE ARE SLOWLY VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST,
RESULTING IN A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF THE APPROACHING SQUALL LINE. CONSEQUENTLY,
BUOYANCY VALUES HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MT WITH
RECENT RAP/MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES SHOWING MLCAPE VALUES OF AROUND
1000 J/KG. THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF SHALLOW CUMULUS WITHIN THIS
REGION SUPPORTS THIS IDEA OF INCREASING MOISTURE CONTENT/BUOYANCY
AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE. AS SUCH, THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THIS LINE
MAY SEE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IN THE COMING HOURS, AND WILL
CONTINUE TO POSE A SEVERE WIND THREAT DOWNSTREAM WITH LOCALIZED
GUSTS UPWARDS OF 60-80 MPH POSSIBLE. WITH TIME, A RIGHTWARD TURN TO
THE SOUTHEAST IS POSSIBLE AS THE LINE APPROACHES THE EASTERN MT
BORDER AND STORM PROPAGATION BECOMES INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED BY THE
DIFFUSE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
..MOORE.. 07/05/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...
LAT...LON 45310832 45610830 45850840 46080848 46240862 46320857
46760664 46840578 46830488 46720449 46610433 46220418
45820417 45450425 45220440 45110468 45040516 45120591
45250680 45280743 45250786 45180816 45240831 45310832
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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