076
ACUS11 KWNS 060056
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060056
SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-060300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1572
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 PM CDT SAT JUL 05 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...BLACK HILLS REGION
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 487...488...
VALID 060056Z - 060300Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 487, 488
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SMALL MCS/SUPERCELL WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE BLACK
HILLS REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAIL AND WIND REMAIN THE
PRIMARY RISKS.
DISCUSSION...LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL/MCS IS TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MT INTO NORTHEAST WY EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS SMALL COMPLEX WILL
CONTINUE PROPAGATING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS, ALONG/NORTH
OF A SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY THAT IS DRAPED ALONG THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA SUGGESTS A
NARROW CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY (1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE) EXTENDS
ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS, AND 00Z SOUNDING FROM UNR SUPPORTS THIS WITH
40KT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS, BUT SOME FORM OF A HYBRID SUPERCELL/MCS COMPLEX IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BLACK
HILLS BY 02Z.
..DARROW.. 07/06/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...
LAT...LON 45530441 44760241 43880196 43520308 44790535 45530441
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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