985
ACUS48 KWNS 060830
SWOD48
SPC AC 060829
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0329 AM CDT SUN JUL 06 2025
VALID 091200Z - 141200Z
..DISCUSSION
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WHILE ZONAL
MID-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT EMBEDDED IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE
NORTHERN CONUS THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE FIRST NOTABLE
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE, WHICH WILL BRING SEVERE POTENTIAL TO THE CENTRAL
U.S. IN THE DAYS 2-3 TIME-FRAME, WILL APPROACH THE EAST COAST WHILE
SLOWING ITS FORWARD ADVANCE. THE IMPULSE SHOULD REACH THE EAST COAST
BY DAY 4 (WEDNESDAY), PROVIDING ADEQUATE LIFT FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. GIVEN PRECEDING
RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, AMPLE BUOYANCY WILL BE AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT
AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH POTENTIALLY DAMAGING GUSTS.
A MORE PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
IN THE DAYS 4-5 (WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY) PERIOD, RESULTING IN STRONG
SURFACE TROUGHING AND THE NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF RICH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SHOWS THAT STRONG
INSTABILITY WILL PRECEDE THE UPPER/SURFACE TROUGHS, FAVORING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS. THE FIRST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER SUPPORT IN THIS REGION
DOES NOT CURRENTLY APPEAR ROBUST, SO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR ON A
MORE ISOLATED BASIS (HENCE NO SEVERE PROBABILITIES INTRODUCED AT
THIS TIME). HOWEVER, THERE IS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AGREEMENT IN THE
UPPER TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON DAY 5 (THURSDAY),
WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT INSTABILITY COULD BECOME EXTREME.
THOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO CONFIDENTLY PINPOINT STORM MODE THIS FAR
IN ADVANCE, GUIDANCE HINTS AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PERSISTENT,
ELONGATED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM, WHICH MAY BE CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING ALL
SEVERE HAZARDS, ESPECIALLY SEVERE WINDS. SEVERE PROBABILITIES HAVE
BEEN ADDED TO ADDRESS THIS SCENARIO.
AS THE PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD, MORE
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MS VALLEY AND PERHAPS
POINTS EAST DAY 6 ONWARD. HOWEVER, THE INTENSITY, COVERAGE, AND
LOCATION OF SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION FROM PREVIOUS DAYS, WHICH IS HARD TO KNOW
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. THEREFORE, SEVERE PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN
WITHHELD THIS OUTLOOK.
..SQUITIERI.. 07/06/2025
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