336
ACUS11 KWNS 061215
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061214
NEZ000-SDZ000-061415-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1574
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0714 AM CDT SUN JUL 06 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 061214Z - 061415Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PERSIST FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF
HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING. ISOLATED HAIL AND A DAMAGING WIND GUST OR
TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE NEAR TERM. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF A REMNANT MCS THAT MOVED
ACROSS THIS REGION OVERNIGHT. THESE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE
DRIVEN BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT FOCUSED ATOP A RESIDUAL COLD POOL LEFT
OVER FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. THIS SHOWS UP AS STRONG WARM-AIR
ADVECTION CENTERED AROUND 700 MB IN REGIONAL MESOANALYSIS.
MESOANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES A RICH CAPE RESERVOIR TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THE ONGOING STORMS, WITHIN THE THUNDERSTORM SOURCE/INFLOW REGION,
PROVIDING ADDITIONAL BUOYANCY. WITH TIME, DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD
BEGIN TO MODIFY THE EXISTING COLD POOL AND WEAKEN THE ISENTROPIC
ASCENT/WAA LEADING TO A DOWNWARD TREND IN THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY.
BEFORE THIS WEAKENING OCCURS, LAPSE RATES DO NOT APPEAR PARTICULAR
STEEP THIS MORNING PER RAP-MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS, AND AN
ISOTHERMS LAYER EXTENDS UPWARD FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 800 MB.
THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL TO ISOLATED HAIL AND PERHAPS
A DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO -- REALISTICALLY ONLY IN THE MOST
INTENSE CORES.
A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
..MARSH/BUNTING.. 07/06/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...
LAT...LON 42700288 43310326 43780292 43860217 43680064 43250033
42590021 42300061 42170165 42700288
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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