937
ACUS11 KWNS 061251
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061251
NCZ000-061515-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1575
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 AM CDT SUN JUL 06 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...EAST NORTH CAROLINA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 061251Z - 061515Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A MARGINAL INCREASE IN TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY OCCUR THIS
MORNING AS TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND. THE
OVERALL TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE
NEED FOR A TC-RELATED TORNADO WATCH. HOWEVER, TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...A MARGINAL INCREASE IN TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY OCCUR THIS
MORNING AS TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND. THIS
MARGINAL INCREASE WOULD COINCIDE WITH MODEST DIURNAL HEATING
INCREASING AND SEVERAL FEEDER BANDS STREAMING INLAND ON THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE OF CHANTAL. THE ONSHORE ENVIRONMENT CONTAINING THESE
FEEDER BANDS HAS LITTLE INSTABILITY AT PRESENT AND THE LOW-LEVEL
STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY IS ON THE LOWER SIDE OF LAND-FALLING
TROPICAL CYCLONES. THAT SAID, THE LOW-LEVEL STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY
STILL REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR LOW-LEVEL ROTATION WITH STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS. PRESENT THINKING IS THAT THE LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND MODEST LOW-LEVEL HELICITY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY LONGER
DURATION/LARGER AREA TORNADO THREAT AND THUS A TC-RELATED TORNADO
WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER, TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE EVALUATED FOR INCREASING BUOYANCY AND/OR LOW-LEVEL HELICITY.
..MARSH/BUNTING.. 07/06/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...
LAT...LON 33857826 34727876 35637820 35897780 35987689 35627583
34757563 34517617 34197674 33827750 33857826
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
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