172
ACUS11 KWNS 061828
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061827
MIZ000-INZ000-062000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1577
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0127 PM CDT SUN JUL 06 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF LOWER MICHIGAN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 061827Z - 062000Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. STORM ORGANIZATION POTENTIAL IS LOW, THOUGH
SOME STRONGER CLUSTERS MAY EMERGE. A WW IS UNLIKELY.
DISCUSSION...AS OF 1830 UTC, SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED
INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MI. THIS
INITIAL ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SLOW TO INTENSIFY ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT
AND IN PROXIMITY TO TYPICAL DIURNAL LAKE-INDUCED BOUNDARIES. DRIVEN
LARGELY BY STRONG HEATING OF A MOIST AIR MASS AND WEAK ASCENT, THIS
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS DEVELOPING
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MODERATE BUOYANCY (1000-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE)
WILL SUPPORT SOME MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS WITH MULTI-CELL STORMS. SOME
TRANSIENT STORM ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE INTO CLUSTERS OR WEAK
BOWING STRUCTURES OWING TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AROUND 25-30
KT. POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LESS THAN 6 C/KM DO NOT LEND STRONG
CONFIDENCE IN SUSTAINED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, OCCASIONAL
DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THE
STRONGER/MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN
STORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON, AT LEAST A LOCALIZED RISK FOR
OCCASIONAL DAMAGING GUSTS IS BECOMING APPARENT. CONDITIONS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WEATHER WATCH, THOUGH ONE CURRENTLY SEEMS
UNLIKELY.
..LYONS/HART.. 07/06/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...
LAT...LON 42188622 43738607 44588522 44928448 44938330 44388317
44128298 43898258 43278249 42678244 41778352 41678510
41768602 41958621 42188622
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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