626
ACUS11 KWNS 061838
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061838
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-062115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1578
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0138 PM CDT SUN JUL 06 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST COLORADO TO SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 061838Z - 062115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL SPREAD EAST AND INTENSIFY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS, THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WINDS, AND POSSIBLY
LARGE HAIL, WILL INCREASE. WATCH ISSUANCE IS PROBABLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.
DISCUSSION...LATEST GOES IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOWS A GRADUAL
UPTICK IN CONVECTION WITHIN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN CO AND FAR SOUTHERN WY AS DAYTIME HEATING DRIVES INCREASING
OROGRAPHIC ASCENT WITHIN A WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS. THIS INITIAL
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OVER THE
COMING HOURS GIVEN 30-40 KNOT WESTERLY FLOW WITHIN THE CAPE-BEARING
LAYER. STORM INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS CONVECTION OVERSPREADS A
RELATIVELY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS (DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S DOWNSTREAM) AND AS LINGERING INHIBITION IS REMOVED VIA
DEEPENING BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING/MIXING.
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND WESTERN NE, SLIGHTLY STRONGER ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT COUPLED WITH WEAK EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD PROMOTE
ADEQUATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS WITH AN
ATTENDANT LARGE HAIL RISK (POSSIBLY UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER). THE
TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO BE LOCALLY GREATEST ACROSS THIS REGION DUE
TO AUGMENTED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH ON THE IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF A
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EMANATING OUT OF CENTRAL NE.
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS CO, OBSERVED DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND
SHORT-TERM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LCL HEIGHTS SHOULD APPROACH
2.5 TO 3 KM AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S, WHICH WILL
PROMOTE STRONG DOWNDRAFT EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND ACCELERATIONS AS
WELL AS RAPID COLD POOL PRODUCTION. STRONG TO SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS
AND SPORADIC LARGE HAIL APPEAR LIKELY WITHIN INITIALLY DISCRETE
CELLS MOVING OFF THE TERRAIN AND/OR DEVELOPING WITHIN THE DCVZ, BUT
UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ORGANIZED CLUSTERS IS ANTICIPATED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WIND RISK (WITH
GUSTS POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 70-80 MPH). WATCH ISSUANCE IS PROBABLE AS
THESE THREATS BEGIN TO EMERGE IN THE COMING HOURS.
..MOORE/HART.. 07/06/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 40170514 41190520 41680493 42020458 42360407 42430360
42350311 41860264 41360256 40730251 40160253 39340260
39050292 38330454 38280476 38310502 38560514 40170514
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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