359
ACUS11 KWNS 061857
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061857
NEZ000-KSZ000-062100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1579
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 PM CDT SUN JUL 06 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 061857Z - 062100Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A RESIDUAL MCS WILL LIKELY
INTENSIFY TO SEVERE LIMITS AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LARGE
HAIL AND SPORADIC SEVERE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT THE THREAT FROM
THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT
WATCH ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A RESIDUAL MCS ACROSS
CENTRAL NE HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF RE-INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST HOUR
BASED ON LIGHTNING DATA, CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES, AND ECHO TOP
TRENDS. ADDITIONALLY, MRMS VERTICALLY INTEGRATED ICE VALUES ARE
BEGINNING TO SUGGEST THAT SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THE
DEEPER/STRONGER CORES. THIS INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY BEING DRIVEN
BY INCREASING BUOYANCY ASSOCIATED WITH DAYTIME HEATING OF A MOIST
AIR MASS IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF THE DECAYING MCS/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. LATEST VWP DATA AND RAP MESOANALYSES SUGGEST THAT BULK
SHEAR OVER THE REGION IS SOMEWHAT MODEST (AROUND 20-25 KNOTS) OVER
CENTRAL NE WITH DECREASING MID-LEVEL FLOW WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT INTO
THE RESERVOIR OF HIGHER MLCAPE. CONSEQUENTLY, CONTINUED
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATION/DEVELOPMENT OF SOMEWHAT TRANSIENT
DEEPER CONVECTIVE CORES IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH PEAK HEATING, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WELL-ORGANIZED/INTENSE MCS DEVELOPMENT IS
IMMINENT. REGARDLESS, DEEPER CORES BEHIND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY POSE A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND SPORADIC STRONG TO SEVERE
DOWNBURST WINDS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED,
BUT WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
..MOORE/HART.. 07/06/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...
LAT...LON 41080112 41080037 41129994 41379928 41719889 41929862
41949824 41819780 41399745 40919743 40459758 40069788
39899853 39789938 39799998 39860040 39990082 40140109
40400122 40730125 40890126 41080112
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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