325
ACUS11 KWNS 061919
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061918
NMZ000-062145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1580
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0218 PM CDT SUN JUL 06 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NEW MEXICO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 061918Z - 062145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS EMANATING OFF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL POSE
AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS IS EVIDENT IN RECENT GOES IMAGERY. WEAK
MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SLOW STORM
PROPAGATION OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT AS THIS OCCURS STORMS WILL
EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO AN UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM
(DEWPOINT VALUES IN THE 75TH-90TH PERCENTILE FOR EARLY JULY). THIS
MOISTURE IS CONTRIBUTING TO AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE THAT SHOULD
PROMOTE THUNDERSTORM MAINTENANCE, AND POSSIBLY INTENSIFICATION,
THROUGH LATE EVENING. A COMBINATION OF SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS AND
PROPAGATING CLUSTERS IS EXPECTED WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL (MOST LIKELY NEAR/BELOW 1.25 INCH IN DIAMETER)
AND SPORADIC SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY ISOLATED GIVEN THE MODEST KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT, WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR WATCH ISSUANCE.
..MOORE/HART.. 07/06/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
LAT...LON 33030448 32680468 32490487 32390508 32420536 32660576
32930586 33280589 35630566 36190559 36640546 36800533
36890500 36930461 36830414 36690345 36310317 36060313
33030448
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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