376
ACUS11 KWNS 062155
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062154
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-070000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1583
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0454 PM CDT SUN JUL 06 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS...NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND
THE FAR EASTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 062154Z - 070000Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SPORADIC SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS INTO THIS EVENING. A WATCH IS NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED, THOUGH CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...WIDELY SCATTERED OUTFLOW-DOMINANT THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EVOLVING ALONG A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHERN KS INTO
NORTHERN OK. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ATOP A WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER ARE YIELDING STRONG SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY AHEAD OF THESE
STORMS. WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR SPORADIC SEVERE
DOWNBURSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL, GENERALLY WEAK DEEP-LAYER
FLOW/SHEAR LIMITS CONFIDENCE IN STORM ORGANIZATION/LONGEVITY.
THEREFORE, A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED, THOUGH CONVECTIVE
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.
..WEINMAN/GLEASON.. 07/06/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...
LAT...LON 38029696 38089627 37719574 37229576 36879632 35809946
35849996 36210018 36500025 36890010 37249965 38029696
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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