011
ACUS11 KWNS 062304
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062303
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-070030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1584
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0603 PM CDT SUN JUL 06 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST COLORADO...NORTHWEST KS...AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 489...490...
VALID 062303Z - 070030Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 489, 490
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A FOCUSED/FAVORABLE CORRIDOR FOR LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE
WIND GUSTS IS EVIDENT OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS -- WITHIN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES 489/490.
DISCUSSION...AN INTENSE, NEARLY STATIONARY SUPERCELL HAS EVOLVED OUT
OF A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN CO. FARTHER WEST, A
SEPARATE CLUSTER OF STORMS IS SHOWING SIGNS OF UPSCALE GROWTH. TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS ACTIVITY, A GRADUALLY STALLING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY IS ARCING NORTHWESTWARD FROM NORTHWEST KS INTO NORTHEASTERN
CO. THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE A FOCUSED MESOSCALE CORRIDOR
FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF THE SUPERCELL (AND ADDITIONAL NEARBY
CONVECTION) WITH SOUTHEASTWARD EXTENT INTO THIS EVENING. ALONG THIS
CORRIDOR, AROUND 40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR (LOCALLY BOOSTED/ENHANCED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY) AND MODERATE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL
FAVOR LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL (SOME 2+ INCHES IN DIAMETER) AND
SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH ANY ESTABLISHED SUPERCELLS/CLUSTERS. SOME
UPSCALE GROWTH MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH TIME, AS THE WESTERN CLUSTER MAY
HAVE A TENDENCY OF MERGING WITH THE DOWNSTREAM STORMS/SUPERCELLS --
POSING AN INCREASING RISK OF SEVERE-WIND GUSTS INTO THIS EVENING.
..WEINMAN.. 07/06/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 39890262 40070379 40310432 40510443 41030408 41510398
41740355 41700294 41480238 40730187 39900146 39630170
39610203 39710228 39890262
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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