552
ACUS11 KWNS 070913
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070912
SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-071115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1588
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0412 AM CDT MON JUL 07 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NORTHEAST WYOMING...FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA...AND
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 070912Z - 071115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE THIS MORNING. HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. CURRENTLY, A WATCH
IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THIS THREAT.
DISCUSSION...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING / REDEVELOPING THIS
MORNING ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THESE
STORMS APPEAR TO BE ROOTED BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MILLIBARS AND ARE
LIKELY DRIVEN BY MODEST WARM-AIR ADVECTION WITHIN THIS LAYER PER
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION.
THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS UNSTABLE WITH MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE BETWEEN
1000-1500 J/KG. HOWEVER, EFFECTIVE-LAYER SHEAR IS QUITE VARIABLE
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH BETTER SHEAR TO THE NORTH AND TO THE SOUTH OF
THE ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS. THAT SAID, EFFECTIVE-LAYER SHEAR BETWEEN
25-30 KNOTS IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT STRONG MULTICELLS OR EVEN
TRANSIENT SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY AND AT LEAST MODEST EFFECTIVE-LAYER SHEAR, ISOLATED HAIL
AND PERHAPS STRONG WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS NOT ANTICIPATED AND THUS A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.
SOME CAM-BASED GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING
THUNDERSTORMS TO EVENTUALLY COALESCE INTO A SMALL ORGANIZED MCS
LATER THIS MORNING. SHOULD EVIDENCE OF THIS ORGANIZATION START TO
MATERIALIZE, THE POTENTIAL FOR A WATCH LATER THIS MORNING WOULD
INCREASE ACCORDINGLY.
..MARSH/BUNTING.. 07/07/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...BYZ...
LAT...LON 44090536 44530586 45040550 45350454 45630349 45580231
45230132 44520099 43880102 43440139 43220220 43420333
43710446 44090536
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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