921
ACUS02 KWNS 071726
SWODY2
SPC AC 071725
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT MON JUL 07 2025
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
MID ATLANTIC...AND OVER A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING GUSTS ARE MOST
PROBABLE OVER PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC, AND OVER MUCH OF OKLAHOMA.
..PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MS VALLEY
A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY, AROUND AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. OF NOTE ARE RELATIVELY COOL MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH -8 TO -10 C AT 500 MB FROM OK INTO KS.
AT THE SURFACE, A BOUNDARY WILL STRETCH FROM PARTS OF NORTHERN MO
INTO SOUTHERN KS, POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY AREAS OF EARLY CONVECTION.
STRONG HEATING AND A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO STRONG
DESTABILIZATION, ESPECIALLY ACROSS KS, OK, MO AND NORTHERN TX. WHILE
MODEL SOLUTIONS DO VARY WITH TIMING OF REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY, THE OVERARCHING THEME IS FOR ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS OF
STORMS TO FORM LATE IN THE DAY, WITH A SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION. GIVEN
SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT, AREAS OF
SEVERE WIND GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY WITH ANY MCS. DEPENDING ON HOW
ORGANIZED SUCH AN MCS BECOMES, IT COULD POTENTIALLY REACH NORTHERN
TX BY 12Z WEDNESDAY WITH WIND POTENTIAL.
..MID ATLANTIC
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY,
WITH PERIPHERAL EFFECTS ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL DEEPEN DURING THE DAY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR, WHERE A VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL EXIST DUE TO 70S F DEWPOINTS AND
STRONG HEATING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE TALL, MOIST CAPE PROFILES WITH MUCAPE OF
2000-3000 J/KG AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2.00 INCHES. THIS
SHOULD FOSTER ROBUST STORMS WITH HEAVY WATER LOADING AND SEVERE
DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL.
STORMS SHOULD FORM BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN WV/WESTERN AND
NORTHERN VA, WITH AN UPWARD TREND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PA, NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VA, MD, DE AND NJ. STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS, ESPECIALLY AS
OUTFLOWS MERGE AFTER ABOUT 21Z.
..JEWELL.. 07/07/2025
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