737
ACUS11 KWNS 072158
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072157
MNZ000-NDZ000-072330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1596
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0457 PM CDT MON JUL 07 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 494...
VALID 072157Z - 072330Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 494
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO AND OCCASIONAL LARGE
HAIL/WIND DAMAGE WILL PERSIST.
DISCUSSION...A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE ONGOING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST ND. THE MORE FAVORABLE ZONE FOR A TORNADO OR TWO WILL
REMAIN ALONG THE NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHEAST ND, WHERE BOTH VERTICAL SHEAR/BUOYANCY AND
VERTICAL VORTICITY ARE MAXIMIZED ALONG AND TO THE IMMEDIATE COOL
SIDE OF THE FRONT. FARTHER SOUTH, A COUPLE OF STORMS ARE ONGOING
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WIND SHIFT/TROUGH. MODERATE
BUOYANCY IS PRESENT THROUGH THIS ZONE WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S WITH MID 60S DEWPOINTS, BUT
RELATIVELY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL. OVERALL, STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEMI-DISCRETE AND THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PEAK BETWEEN NOW AND 00Z IN THE ZONE OF MODEST
FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING OVER
NORTHEAST ND.
..THOMPSON.. 07/07/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FGF...
LAT...LON 48559704 48019652 47659661 47209705 47099739 47159806
47649791 48189811 48439842 48659834 48699780 48559704
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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