562
ACUS11 KWNS 072228
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072228
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-080000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1597
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0528 PM CDT MON JUL 07 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTHEAST CO...SOUTHWEST NE...AND FAR
NORTHWEST KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 492...
VALID 072228Z - 080000Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 492
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS CONTINUE
ACROSS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 492. SOME LOCALIZED UPSCALE GROWTH
MAY SUPPORT AN INCREASING SEVERE-WIND RISK INTO THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN CO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN NE
PANHANDLE AS THEY IMPINGE ON A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER. STEEP DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES AND A LONG/STRAIGHT
HODOGRAPH (AROUND 40 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PER MESOANALYSIS/VWP)
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY SEVERE WIND
GUSTS. WITH TIME, CONTINUED STORM MERGERS AMID STRONG CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW MAY FAVOR SOME LOCALIZED UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE
COHERENT CLUSTERS INTO THIS EVENING. THIS EVOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT AN
INCREASING RISK OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS (SOME UPWARDS OF 75 MPH).
..WEINMAN.. 07/07/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 39430288 40560321 41340327 41680313 41890277 41880219
41520179 40100142 39460166 39350241 39430288
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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