928
ACUS11 KWNS 080046
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080045
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-080215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1599
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 PM CDT MON JUL 07 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 493...
VALID 080045Z - 080215Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 493
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE SEVERE RISK WILL CONTINUE SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 493 INTO TONIGHT. A
DOWNSTREAM/REPLACEMENT WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA TOWARD THE EXPIRATION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 493.
DISCUSSION...A LARGE CLUSTER OF MERGING THUNDERSTORMS IS DRIFTING
SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST NE, WHERE SEVERAL REPORTS OF
SEVERE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL HAVE OCCURRED. GIVEN THE LARGE MASS OF
STORMS AND AROUND 30 KT OF WEST-NORTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW (SAMPLED
BY OAX VWP), THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO TONIGHT. A WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND MODESTLY
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES DOWNSTREAM SHOULD SUPPORT A CONTINUED
RISK OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH SOUTHEASTWARD
EXTENT. THIS WILL LIKELY WARRANT A DOWNSTREAM/REPLACEMENT WATCH FOR
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NE INTO WESTERN IA TOWARD THE EXPIRATION TIME OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 493 (03Z).
..WEINMAN/GLEASON.. 07/08/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...
LAT...LON 40829562 40319668 40199808 40459879 41029931 41729933
42269918 42449881 42659730 42809651 42789583 42429531
41959515 41289516 40829562
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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