074  
ACUS11 KWNS 080345  
SWOMCD  
SPC MCD 080344  
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-080515-  
 
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1601  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1044 PM CDT MON JUL 07 2025  
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST IOWA...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND FAR  
NORTHWEST MISSOURI  
 
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 495...  
 
VALID 080344Z - 080515Z  
 
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 495  
CONTINUES.  
 
SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS MAY SPREAD A LITTLE  
SOUTHEAST OF THE CURRENT WATCH. THE NEED FOR A DOWNSTREAM WATCH  
INTO MISSOURI IS UNCERTAIN.  
 
DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS EVOLVED INTO A SOMEWHAT  
ORGANIZED/BOWING SEGMENT THAT HAS RECENTLY PRODUCED MEASURED GUSTS  
UP TO 67 MPH IN THE OMAHA AREA. LOCAL RADAR IMAGES SUGGEST THAT  
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW IS SEVERAL MILES AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE  
CORES, WITH A 40-50 KT REAR INFLOW SIGNATURE. THE ORIENTATION OF  
THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VECTORS AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT AN  
ANAFRONTAL CONFIGURATION SHOULD BE MAINTAINED WITH VERY GRADUAL  
WEAKENING OF THE STORMS OVER TIME. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL  
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING/SEVERE OUTFLOW GUSTS WHICH COULD  
SPREAD A COUPLE OF COUNTIES SOUTHEAST OF THE CURRENT WATCH  
CONFIGURATION. GIVEN THE EXPECTATION FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING  
OVERNIGHT, THE NEED FOR A NEW/DOWNSTREAM WATCH INTO MO IS SOMEWHAT  
UNCERTAIN.  
 
..THOMPSON.. 07/08/2025  
   
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT  
 
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...  
 
LAT...LON 41059552 41529503 41439457 41129426 40669439 40439460  
40099537 40029606 40269669 40739675 40869649 41059552  
 
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH  
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN  
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