666
ACUS11 KWNS 080659
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080659
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-080830-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1602
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0159 AM CDT TUE JUL 08 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL IA...NORTHWEST MO...NORTHEAST
KS...FAR SOUTHEAST NE
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 495...
VALID 080659Z - 080830Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 495
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND REMAINS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
DISCUSSION...A LOOSELY ORGANIZED QLCS IS ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING
FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL IA INTO NORTHWEST MO AND NORTHEAST KS.
LOW/MIDLEVEL FLOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ARE GENERALLY RATHER WEAK,
AND THERE HAS BEEN A CONTINUED TENDENCY FOR THE GUST FRONT TO
OUTPACE THE DEEPER CONVECTIVE CORES. HOWEVER, EVEN WITH THIS
CONFIGURATION, A RELATIVELY EXPANSIVE COLD POOL IS SUPPORTING
OCCASIONAL STRONG GUSTS, WITH A 51 KT GUST RECENTLY OBSERVED AT ST.
JOSEPH, MO.
WITH CINH INCREASING DOWNSTREAM, A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, BUT SOME THREAT FOR STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE GUSTS MAY PERSIST EARLY THIS MORNING NEAR AND JUST
BEHIND THE SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING OUTFLOW/GUST FRONT.
..DEAN.. 07/08/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...
LAT...LON 39619750 39769742 40199703 40109638 39829518 40549407
41759342 41769283 41389250 40149277 39109365 38879526
39459716 39619750
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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