497  
ACUS48 KWNS 080818  
SWOD48  
SPC AC 080817  
 
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0317 AM CDT TUE JUL 08 2025  
 
VALID 111200Z - 161200Z  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
THE OVERALL CURRENT LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS  
FORECAST PERIOD, ALBEIT WITH MINOR DAY-TO-DAY VARIATIONS. MORE  
SPECIFICALLY, A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN US,  
ALTHOUGH ITS CENTER WILL MEANDER FROM THE SOUTHWEST US TO OFF THE  
COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND BACK; A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OF  
VARYING INTENSITY WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS; AND  
A VERY WARM, MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE  
EASTERN US.  
 
THIS OVERALL PATTERN SUGGESTS EPISODIC BOUTS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS  
ON ANY GIVEN DAY. HOWEVER, THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF SPECIFIC  
EPISODES WILL BE TIED TO MESOSCALE DETAILS AND IMPACTS FROM PRIOR  
DAYS' CONVECTION WHICH HAVE LOW PREDICTABILITY ON TIME SCALES OF  
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AS SUCH, LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF  
REQUIRED TO IDENTIFY ANY OF THESE SEVERE EVENTS CURRENTLY PRECLUDES  
ANY PROBABILISTIC DELINEATION AT THIS TIME.  
 
THAT SAID, THERE ARE A COUPLE OF SCENARIOS BEING MONITORED FOR  
POTENTIAL FUTURE HIGHLIGHTS. THE FIRST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE  
STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY ASSOCIATED  
WITH A RESIDUAL BOUNDARY/FRONT. HOWEVER, IMPACTS FROM A POTENTIAL  
OVERNIGHT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS  
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY LEAD TO  
LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF ANY BOUNDARIES AND THE  
RESULTING SEVERE POTENTIAL.  
 
ANOTHER POTENTIAL IS FOR SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA  
AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE  
CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH VARIANCE REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF MOISTURE  
RETURN, DEGREE OF INSTABILITY, AND TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE ITSELF TO  
PRECLUDE UNCONDITIONAL SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.  
 
..MARSH.. 07/08/2025  
 
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